Syria: Catastrophe

Posted on substack 20 January 2026

A catastrophe is unfolding, hour by hour, in North East Syria.

The transitional government of Al-Sharaa agreed a ceasefire with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) of North East Syria (called ‘the Kurds’ by most in the press) on Sunday. But government forces and associated armed groups (al-Sharaa’s militia, the HTS, and the Syrian National Army, a violent Turkish proxy) continued and widened their attacks.

Under American pressure, the SDF under the ceasefire ceded control of two provinces east of the Euphrates. But government and extremist attacks continued in the towns of Raqqa and Deir ez Zor. The former is well known as the headquarters of ISIS during the years when ISIS controlled large swathes of Syria - until they were defeated by the SDF, at great cost in life, with ‘allied’ air support, a campaign that has continued until now. Indeed there has been a resurgence in ISIS attacks in recent months.

Government forces and extremist groups are now pushing far into the North East, laying siege to Kobani in the north, and attacking the major centres of Hasakeh and Raqqa. It is clear that Turkey, seeing the world’s attention distracted by the lunatic in the White House, is seizing the opportunity to occupy the whole region and destroy the SDF, whom they allege is one and the same as the PKK, once and for all. Multiple atrocities have been committed along the way, with horrible videos of torture, summary execution and mutilation of corpses of SDF fighters, videos filmed and gleefully circulated by the jihadists among al Sharaa’s forces, often to the accompaniment of songs celebrating the killing of non-believers. The atrocities, of course, are reminiscent of ISIS. Indeed, there are photographs that appear to show known ISIS members among the armed groups.

Hundreds of ISIS prisoners were freed from a prison south of Hasakeh yesterday. As I write (1pm UK on 19 January), al Hol, the huge camp in the far north east holding tens of thousands of ISIS fighters and their families, is under attack but the situation is unclear: it appears that some prisoners have already escaped. Extremists on the government side are calling for the ‘liberation’ of all ISIS detainees.

Refugees are flooding eastwards. Rhetoric from the government is playing up the ethnic character of the assault on ‘the Kurds’, inciting ethnic hatred and violence. There are reports that the government has named the campaign, ‘Anfal’, which was the name of Saddam Hussein’s genocidal attack in northern Iraq in 1988, which killed 100,000 Kurds. I hope this is not true.

I have been in touch with various diplomats etc who tell me that they are ‘working on’ Damascus to stop the violence. But whatever pressure they are exerting appears to be having no effect. The mistake was that the US envoy (and, notably, also ambassador to Turkey), Thomas Barrack indicated to Damascus that the US accepted that ‘the Kurds’ should be removed west of the Euphrates, effectively greenlighting the government’s attacks in Aleppo and beyond. Turkey and Damascus have also taken this as tacit American acquiescence in a more far reaching invasion of the North East and destruction of the SDF, our ally in the war against ISIS, who have sacrificed forty thousand lives, men and women, in that campaign. The Kurds understandably see this as an epic betrayal. Trump spoke to al-Sharaa yesterday but the attacks have continued today. American troops seem to be involved in securing some of the ISIS prisons, but this too is currently very unclear.

Rojava is now under widescale attack and is at risk of total occupation by Damascus’s forces along with associated extremist groups. Turkish drones are active in the attacks and there was a report this morning of Turkish attack aircraft over Syria. If SDF resistance digs in, which it will, we can expect greater Turkish involvement. Both Damascus and Ankara are no doubt confident that whatever the diplomatic bleatings now, they will suffer no long term consequences for this assault. But the dream of a ‘united’ Syria is dying as we watch. We are seeing domination by force, not unity by consensus, which is what the people of the North East, and the SDF’s leadership, very much want.

The true character of the al-Sharaa regime which, remember, has never been elected, is being revealed. The foolish western embrace of the ex-terrorist ‘reformer’ is exposed for its naivete.

Remember that there is a lot of unverified information going around. But the information I’m sharing about the extent of the attacks is coming from the SDF itself. There is a lot of stuff on ‘X’ but of course much of it is sometimes wild fabrication (one American supposedly independent ‘analyst’ for instance is happily broadcasting anti-Kurd propaganda). I will update as and when. My messaging apps are constantly pinging as I write.